Chelsea have been given a 10% chance of
retaining their Champions League crown this
season, the third highest of the English clubs
remaining in the competition.
Manchester City are most likely to win the
tournament with Pep Guardiola's men given a 25%
chance while Bayern Munich and Liverpool follow
close behind on 20% and 15% respectively.
The prediction comes from FiveThirtyEight and
uses a range of match data to predict the
outcomes of football competitions from around
the world.
Thomas Tuchel's side face Lille in the last-16 of
the competition after finishing second to Juventus
in their group. But only four other teams have a
better chance of winning the competition
according to the latest data.
The Bianconeri have been given less than a 1%
chance of winning the tournament.
Quality of opposition will have also been taken
into account. Because the Blues will face Lille,
they have been given a 90% chance of
progressing to the quarter finals.
Both Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid may be
fancied ahead of Chelsea by many, but because
the two meet in the toughest clash of the round,
their respective chances of winning the tournament
sit at just 4% each.
According to the FiveThirtyEight website: "The
forecasts are based on a substantially revised
version of ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), a
rating system originally devised by FiveThirtyEight
editor-in-chief Nate Silver in 2009 for rating
international soccer teams.
"We have updated and adapted SPI to incorporate
club soccer data going back to 1888 (from more
than 550,000 matches in all) that we’ve collected
from ESPN’s database and the Engsoccerdata
GitHub repository, as well as from play-by-play
data produced by Opta that has been available
since 2010."
Chelsea will play the first leg of their tie with Lille
on February 22 with the return leg coming on
March 16. However Tuchel could face a
significant problem with unvaccinated players
likely to not be allowed to travel into France for
the second-leg.
As far as English clubs go, Manchester United
face the toughest battle to progress.
The Red Devils rode their luck at times in the
group stage and have been in poor form under
both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralph Rangnick this
season.
They face a tough task against Diego Simeone's
Atletico Madrid in the first knockout round and
have been given less than a 1% chance of lifting
the trophy and a 40% chance of progressing.
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
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Chelsea's chances of winning Champions League revealed as Liverpool and Man United learn fates
Chelsea's chances of winning Champions League revealed as Liverpool and Man United learn fates
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